The Question Of AIDS
The question, if AIDS has not spread in geometrically, then either the
spread is slowing down (among homosexuals), or we are being successful
in treating AIDS, or the *active* cases of AIDS is changing.
As we know, there is currently no cure for AIDS, as so far, the drug
treatments have done very little to prolong the life of AIDS sufferers.
Although some people have lived slightly longer than the average time
of 1-3 years after testing positive for AIDS anti-bodies, as the sheer
numbers of AIDS infected increase, we can expect to see some temporary
'successes' from time to time. However, AIDS is fatal - sooner or later.
Since it takes one AIDS infected person to infect another person,
and we can assume that only one person is infected by one other person
at a time, we would have to know how many person(s) an AIDS carrier
is capable of infecting (over a specific period of time), or at least
an average, and how *long* the AIDS carrier is capable of infecting
others. Then we would need to know how much "innoculant" is needed
to infect a person (there are no volunteers, I suspect), and the
resistance to infection. The CDC in Atlanta doesn't keep this kind
of data on-hand, as far as I know, so trying to speculate on why AIDS is
not spreading geometrically, for the most part is guess work.
We do have some hard data than can shed some light on the situation, but it
leaves a rather complex situation.
Heres some interesting information, this is based on data collected from
Jan.-Dec. each year, so it will NOT be corresponding with the previous figures
which run from Nov.-Nov. each year. This year is not complete, so the totals
will seem small, and the CDC report I will be using is dated November 14, 1988
- the same one (and it's previous year) that I have used throughout the
discussion.
Year NEW cases - Known deaths = Active Carriers
1981 290 267 23
1982 1,052 942 110
1983 2,893 2,615 278
1984 5,816 4,857 959
1985 10,707 8,589 2,118
1986 17,006 11,566 5,440
1987 23,666 11,183 12,483
1988 16,800 3,981 12,819 (this year not complete)
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totals 78,312 44,071+ 34,230
It should be noted....the reporting of deaths is incomplete, these are
KNOWN deaths, so there are probably many more left unreported.
The active carriers is increasing, so is the death rates. If everyone
lived longer than the apparent average of 1 or 2 years, we might see a faster
increase, possibly a four fold increase per year. But, since the carriers
die off as fast as they do, we probably won't ever see a doubling or
tripling every year. I would imagine the annual increases we see now do
speak for themselves inlight of the "lag" in the increase of active
AIDS carriers.
What is really the sad news is this:
Considering how many Active AIDS Carriers there are, look at how many
people they have managed to infect, figuring an incubation period of at
least one year. If for instance, we assume in 1984 there were somewhere
in the neighborhood of 900-1200 active AIDS carriers, the results for
1985 is 10,000 NEW AIDS CASES! That is a 1:10 ratio, not good at all.
Last year we have about 1:4.5 ratio, with this year probably coming in
around 1:2 ratio.
Before anyone says, "Ah Hah! See I told you so!"....
Let's remember that hemophiliacs are not spreading AIDS, it is not
easily spread Heterosexually (due to the different environment, the obvious
differences between a vagina and a rectum), and babies - but these are
the recipients of the deadly virus. It is also these groups that are
seeing increases. When we subtract these groups from the 'active carrier'
list, (since they are not spreading AIDS) what appeared to be a slow
down in the spread of AIDS among homosexuals, shows the growth the previous
numbers confirm. That was an increase of 5000 over the previous year for
homosexuals. Unfortunately, we can only make an educated guess which groups
of individuals are dieing and at what rates. It could very well be that
given the homosexual lifestyle, they DO pick up more diseases quicker and
easier, thereby dying faster. This would definately effect the rate
of active AIDS carriers, transmission rates, etc., but we don't have
any hard data on this from the CDC.
The percentage increases can mislead, but when we look at plain numbers,
like NEW cases this year - 265 Hemophiliacs compared to 15,489 Homosexuals
or 6,576 IV Drug users, well there isn't too much to compare.
Bill Bennett
This article originated on
The Salvation Online Network
